Financing-Space-Industry

Financing Space Industry

A Cool 40 Billion

To the best of my knowledge, and Ares rocket launch will cost about $1 billion. The payload to LEO would amass 286,000 lbs., 143 english tons, 130,000 kg.,or 130 metric tons. That’s about $3500 per pound to LEO.

On my page Cargos to the Moon I have calculated that by using an electric drive for flight from LEO to LLO and a one way MMH/N2O4 rocket for braking into LLO and landing on the Moon, 31 tons of functional cargo and 15 tons of spent lander mass to cannibalize can be delivered to the lunar surface by one Ares V rocket launch. Ten launches for $10 billion and another $10 billion for the sophisticated payloads of robots and machinery for an expenditure of $20 billion by private entrepeneurs could plant a 310 ton “industrial seed” and 150 tons of materials in the form of spent landers to make use of. The Kevlar or carbon fiber wound aluminum tanks of the landers would supply aluminum and copper or lithium depending on the alloy used and carbon; possibly hydrogen and nitrogen too if the tanks are wound with Kevlar decomposed in a hi temp furnace. Graphite epoxy frame materials would supply H, C and N. Motors and piping would supply steel, titanium and aluminum.

With six more launches we could get 164 tons of HTS wire (77K YBCO made by American Superconductor) to the Moon. Enough to circle the lunar equator. 22 tons of special parts for cryo units would be included with one payload since 6*31 = 186. We also get another 90 tons of spent landers to cannibalize.

16 launches would cost $16 billion

We could also send up a MALEO habitat (see "The Moon: Resources, Futurre Dev. and Settlement by Shrunk, Sharpe, Cooper and Thangavelu) that would amass 100 metric tons and the Ares V can place 130 metric tons in LEO. Electric drives would propell it to LLO. The extra 30 tons Ares V capacity would be devoted to the solar electric drive and SLAR solar panels that power it. Then we'd have humans on the Moon to teleoperate and repair robots and do tasks too fine for the robots to handle.

So we are up to 17 launches and $17 billion. And about 836 tons on the Moon including spent landers. O'Neill and his colleagues estimated 3000 to 10,000 to 20,000 tons for a lunar mining base. See "The High Frontier." I think that could really be undercut and by bootstrapping with in situ materials or the "make it on the Moon" strategy develop large scale industry on the Moon by 2050 CE if NASA returns to the Moon by 2025 with the intent of planting a seed for private industry.

17 launches for $17 billion to get 836 tons on the Moon (310cargo+150landers+186HST+90landers+100MALEO)

If the MALEO amasses 100 MT and 30 MT remains from one AresV launch, that 30 tons can be devoted to a solar electric ion drive for transit from LEO to LLO in about a year.

To land the MALEO with MMH/N2O4 rockets a mass ratio of 1.7 is required.

MALEO + Landing Rocket mass fueled/MALEO+rocket mass empty. = 1.7

100 MT + 25 (estimate for rocket tanks+motors)+ 87.5/125 = 1.7

So we need a 25 MT lander rocket with 87.5 tons propellants or 112.5 MT.

We need only one more Ares V rocket to launch that to LEO

18 Ares V Rockets for $18 billion and at least another $18 billion for the actual sophisticated payloads.

18 launches for $18 billion to get 861 tons on the Moon (310cargo+150landers+186HTS+90landers+100MALEO+25lander)

Let’s guesstimate the project will cost $40 billion

The only thing that would justify such an investment would be power relay satellites, SPSs and helium 3 for an Earth powered largely by alternate energy sources like winds, waves, biogas, rooftop solar panels, ground based solar farms in the deserts, space based solar, and fusion.

World GDP Growth

A few years back I calculated that at about 3% GDP growth the world GDP would be about $200 trillion a year by 2050 and that $5,311 trillion would be generated over 50 years time. Sometimes the economy will grow faster, sometimes slower, but 3% per annum is a good average growth rate.

The money and the technology should all be there in 2050.

Imagine a gifted ten year old kid born in 1998 learning of all this and actually making it come true when he is an engineer or manager in his fifties.

Bootstrapping

There are ways to cut costs. Once numerous payloads are landed on the Moon the first task will be to deploy solar panels for energy. Then the job of mining ice and regolith to make silane and LUNOX begins so that we can fuel a lunar ferry rocket or Moon Shuttle if you prefer that will rocket up to LLO, dock with the cargo modules after they detach from the ion tug, and then haul the cargo modules down to the lunar surface. Once the Moon Shuttles are operating we can devote 100% of our payload to LEO to useful cargo instead of a large percentage of lunar lander fuel. Ion tugs would be reusable.

We will use lunar resources to build up industry on the Moon consisting of solar powerplants, a power grid, a huge mass driver-possibly several of them, regolith mining and metals extraction, metallic habitat, vehicles, mining tractors, silane and LUNOX production for rockets, factories with assembly lines manned by humans and robots, etc. Even an L5 construction shack could be built up mostly of lunar materials and manufactures.